Euro zone debt crisis : scenario analysis and implications for developing Asia-Pacific
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2012Contributor/ s
Freire, Clovis
Puapan, Pisit
Basu, Sudip Ranjan
Tateno, Yusuke
Sirimaneetham, Vatcharin
Corporate Author/ s
UN.ESCAP
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Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division
+66 2 288-1234
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RT Generic T1 Euro zone debt crisis : scenario analysis and implications for developing Asia-Pacific A1 Freire, Clovis, Puapan, Pisit, Basu, Sudip Ranjan, Tateno, Yusuke, Sirimaneetham, Vatcharin YR 2012 LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12870/1244 PB United Nations AB The ongoing euro zone debt crisis creates an undesirable scenario for the global economy as well as for the Asia-Pacific region given that the region has close economic linkages. The paper aims to provide quantitative estimates of the potential impact of the euro zone debt crisis on merchandise exports as well as on economic growth and poverty reduction efforts in the region. The results indicate that a one-percentage-point fall of output growth of the euro zone would result in a total export loss of $166 billion. In addition, the protectionist threats could further increase the loss in exports by $27 billion. On social development, the disorderly euro zone debt crisis scenario would prevent 8.19 million people to get out of poverty and another 1.15 million would be pushed back into poverty as per the $1.25-a-day poverty line. The paper illustrates that macroeconomic policy space appears adequate in most economies that tend to be more heavily affected by the euro zone debt crisis. But strong inflationary pressures and less favourable public debt conditions could prevent some economies from implementing swift and forceful macroeconomic policy responses. OL English(30) TY - GEN T1 - Euro zone debt crisis : scenario analysis and implications for developing Asia-Pacific AU - Freire, Clovis, Puapan, Pisit, Basu, Sudip Ranjan, Tateno, Yusuke, Sirimaneetham, Vatcharin Y1 - 2012 UR - https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12870/1244 PB - United Nations AB - The ongoing euro zone debt crisis creates an undesirable scenario for the global economy as well as for the Asia-Pacific region given that the region has close economic linkages. The paper aims to provide quantitative estimates of the potential impact of the euro zone debt crisis on merchandise exports as well as on economic growth and poverty reduction efforts in the region. The results indicate that a one-percentage-point fall of output growth of the euro zone would result in a total export loss of $166 billion. In addition, the protectionist threats could further increase the loss in exports by $27 billion. On social development, the disorderly euro zone debt crisis scenario would prevent 8.19 million people to get out of poverty and another 1.15 million would be pushed back into poverty as per the $1.25-a-day poverty line. The paper illustrates that macroeconomic policy space appears adequate in most economies that tend to be more heavily affected by the euro zone debt crisis. But strong inflationary pressures and less favourable public debt conditions could prevent some economies from implementing swift and forceful macroeconomic policy responses. @misc{20.500.12870_1244 author = {Freire, Clovis, Puapan, Pisit, Basu, Sudip Ranjan, Tateno, Yusuke, Sirimaneetham, Vatcharin}, title = {Euro zone debt crisis : scenario analysis and implications for developing Asia-Pacific}, year = {2012}, abstract = {The ongoing euro zone debt crisis creates an undesirable scenario for the global economy as well as for the Asia-Pacific region given that the region has close economic linkages. The paper aims to provide quantitative estimates of the potential impact of the euro zone debt crisis on merchandise exports as well as on economic growth and poverty reduction efforts in the region. The results indicate that a one-percentage-point fall of output growth of the euro zone would result in a total export loss of $166 billion. In addition, the protectionist threats could further increase the loss in exports by $27 billion. On social development, the disorderly euro zone debt crisis scenario would prevent 8.19 million people to get out of poverty and another 1.15 million would be pushed back into poverty as per the $1.25-a-day poverty line. The paper illustrates that macroeconomic policy space appears adequate in most economies that tend to be more heavily affected by the euro zone debt crisis. But strong inflationary pressures and less favourable public debt conditions could prevent some economies from implementing swift and forceful macroeconomic policy responses.}, url = {https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12870/1244} } @misc{20.500.12870_1244 author = {Freire, Clovis, Puapan, Pisit, Basu, Sudip Ranjan, Tateno, Yusuke, Sirimaneetham, Vatcharin}, title = {Euro zone debt crisis : scenario analysis and implications for developing Asia-Pacific}, year = {2012}, abstract = {The ongoing euro zone debt crisis creates an undesirable scenario for the global economy as well as for the Asia-Pacific region given that the region has close economic linkages. The paper aims to provide quantitative estimates of the potential impact of the euro zone debt crisis on merchandise exports as well as on economic growth and poverty reduction efforts in the region. The results indicate that a one-percentage-point fall of output growth of the euro zone would result in a total export loss of $166 billion. In addition, the protectionist threats could further increase the loss in exports by $27 billion. On social development, the disorderly euro zone debt crisis scenario would prevent 8.19 million people to get out of poverty and another 1.15 million would be pushed back into poverty as per the $1.25-a-day poverty line. The paper illustrates that macroeconomic policy space appears adequate in most economies that tend to be more heavily affected by the euro zone debt crisis. But strong inflationary pressures and less favourable public debt conditions could prevent some economies from implementing swift and forceful macroeconomic policy responses.}, url = {https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12870/1244} } TY - GEN T1 - Euro zone debt crisis : scenario analysis and implications for developing Asia-Pacific AU - Freire, Clovis, Puapan, Pisit, Basu, Sudip Ranjan, Tateno, Yusuke, Sirimaneetham, Vatcharin UR - https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12870/1244 PB - United Nations AB - The ongoing euro zone debt crisis creates an undesirable scenario for the global economy as well as for the Asia-Pacific region given that the region has close economic linkages. The paper aims to provide quantitative estimates of the potential impact of the euro zone debt crisis on merchandise exports as well as on economic growth and poverty reduction efforts in the region. The results indicate that a one-percentage-point fall of output growth of the euro zone would result in a total export loss of $166 billion. In addition, the protectionist threats could further increase the loss in exports by $27 billion. On social development, the disorderly euro zone debt crisis scenario would prevent 8.19 million people to get out of poverty and another 1.15 million would be pushed back into poverty as per the $1.25-a-day poverty line. The paper illustrates that macroeconomic policy space appears adequate in most economies that tend to be more heavily affected by the euro zone debt crisis. But strong inflationary pressures and less favourable public debt conditions could prevent some economies from implementing swift and forceful macroeconomic policy responses.Metadata
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MPFD Working Papers
No. WP/12/03
No. WP/12/03
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Abstract
The ongoing euro zone debt crisis creates an undesirable scenario for the global economy as well as for the Asia-Pacific region given that the region has close economic linkages. The paper aims to provide quantitative estimates of the potential impact of the euro zone debt crisis on merchandise exports as well as on economic growth and poverty reduction efforts in the region. The results indicate that a one-percentage-point fall of output growth of the euro zone would result in a total export loss of $166 billion. In addition, the protectionist threats could further increase the loss in exports by $27 billion. On social development, the disorderly euro zone debt crisis scenario would prevent 8.19 million people to get out of poverty and another 1.15 million would be pushed back into poverty as per the $1.25-a-day poverty line. The paper illustrates that macroeconomic policy space appears adequate in most economies that tend to be more heavily affected by the euro zone debt crisis. But strong inflationary pressures and less favourable public debt conditions could prevent some economies from implementing swift and forceful macroeconomic policy responses.